When I saw the headline: 15 Companies That Might Not Make It In 2009 I reacted as if someone had thrown raw meat in front of a hungry dog. I expected something really good, but once I got there I frankly wondered “is this news?”
Chrysler was on the list… didn’t need lots of research to tell me that possibility.
Sbarro… My first introduction to this pizza restaurant was the Pennsylvania turnpike. What more can I say? I thought they needed a captive audience. So that’s no big surprise.
Sirius? I didn’t get on the satellite radio bandwagon yet.
Something run by Donald Trump? Half the entertainment value in the business news is watching Trump create some overreaching empire, watch it implode and then see “The Donald” resurrect it some way, some how. I firmly believe bankruptcy court is part of Mr. Trump’s official marketing strategy.
A Casino? Good riddance.
Now if Blockbuster goes out that might affect me. It IS the place I rent movies in town. I may have to break down and get Netflix but I really don’t rent that many movies to justify it (at least I thought I didn’t).
Krispy Kreme? I’m a cake donut man and prefer Dunkin Donuts or – especially – the Daylight Donuts franchise in the next town. Now having them Daylight Donuts go out would hurt my feelings.
This article would be worth reading if you owned individual shares of stock in one of these companies and were about to lose equity in them. Otherwise, you probably don’t want to waste your time. (Let ME do that for you – oh, I just did!)
The analysis was based essentially on cash flow and pretty much assumes that these companies will all be passive victims of the economy. The wild card is – as we’ve seen with The Donald before – the personal intangible assets of the people running the companies to survive.
And that depends on the owner. The Donald keeps things going somehow by the sheer force of his will and energy.
I wonder if people ever thought Wal Mart would have made it from it’s humble beginnings? Can you imagine someone on Wal Street 30 years ago being asked if a Bentonville Arkansas company headed by someone without an MBA would dominate the retail market of the US in 2009? They’d have laughed in your face and spilled their martini on you due to the convulsions.
So look to the ownership.
“Caretaker” owners who’ve inherited the business and who don’t have the personal investment of a Sam Walton will cut a deal to secure their golden parachute and hold a merger party … that’s what caretaker’s do. Pioneers will try to survive and thrive. That doesn’t show up on the balance sheet.
And that same grit and determination will determine how we fare in business in 2009!
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