What Will The Boom Counties Be In 2020?

It’s easy to look out the window and say “There’s no opportunity here…”.

But what will your county look like in 14 years? Could it be one of the emerging “boom counties” that just looks like a backwater today?

Or could you be experiencing the tail end of an economic boom that is destined to leave your business high and dry just as you want to retire?

Jack Lessinger Ph.D. runs Predicting2020.com. His latest work Your Countie - Boom or bust?: The Rise of Penturbia the Fall of Suburbia discusses the trends that effect the future of 3017 in the U.S.

Maybe it’s what you need to guage the future profitability of your home town… or help choose a new one.

Suburbia appeared after World War II, a first for the 20th century and beguiling as a fairy tale. Even the air seemed more modern, more precious. From across the nation the elite came to set down roots and open businesses, I call all the counties manifesting this unique settlement pattern a region of opportunity.

Every new region of opportunity comprises a unique stew of architecture, neighborhoods, culture, politics and ambiance. But what determines its distinctive character? What prompts the rise of a successor, and must every rise be followed by a fall? Until my Regions of Opportunity (Random House, 1986) was published, these questions delineated a dark continent, relatively unexplored, widely misunderstood.

Counties of the fifth region of opportunity I call penturbia. Expect penturban counties to grow vigorously in the decades ahead. For planners, investors and householders, 96 pages of innovative maps (see Appendix, pp 190-289) show declining suburbia, rising penturbia and the unaffected remainder. For 3,107 counties, they compress data on four periods of changing percentage shares of national population: 1930-1950, 1950-1970, 1970-1990 and 1990-2004. The maps also indicate my predictions of likely growth or decline.